Publications

2014
Towards a Better Global Economy: Policy Implications for Citizens Worldwide in the 21st Century
Allen F, Behrman JR, Birdsall N, Fardoust S, Rodrik D, Steer A, Subramanian A. Towards a Better Global Economy: Policy Implications for Citizens Worldwide in the 21st Century. Oxford University Press; 2014 pp. 496. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Substantial progress in the fight against extreme poverty was made in the last two decades. But the slowdown in global economic growth and significant increases in income inequality in many developed and developing countries raise serious concerns about the continuation of this trend into the 21st century. The time has come to seriously think about how improvements in official global governance, coupled with and reinforced by rising activism of 'global citizens' can lead to welfare-enhancing and more equitable results for global citizens through better national and international policies.

This book examines the factors that are most likely to facilitate the process of beneficial economic growth in low-, middle-, and high-income countries. It examines past, present, and future economic growth; demographic changes; the hyperglobalization of trade; the effect of finance on growth; climate change and resource depletion; and the sense of global citizenship and the need for global governance in order to draw longer-term implications, identify policy options for improving the lives of average citizens around the world, and make the case for the need to confront new challenges with truly global policy responses. The book documents how demographic changes, convergence, and competition are likely to bring about massive shifts in the sectoral and geographical composition of global output and employment, as the center of gravity of the global economy moves toward Asia and emerging economies elsewhere. It shows that the legacies of the 2008-09 crisis-high unemployment levels, massive excess capacities, and high debt levels-are likely to reduce the standard of living of millions of people in many countries over a long period of adjustment and that fluctuations in international trade, financial markets, and commodity prices, as well as the tendency of institutions at both the national and international level to favor the interests of the better-off and more powerful pose substantial risks for citizens of all countries. The chapters and their policy implications are intended to stimulate public interest and facilitate the exchange of ideas and policy dialogue.

When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, World Views, and Policy Innovations. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 2014;28 (1) :189–208.Abstract

Ideas are strangely absent from modern models of political economy. In most prevailing theories of policy choice, the dominant role is instead played by "vested interests"—elites, lobbies, and rent-seeking groups which get their way at the expense of the general public. Any model of political economy in which organized interests do not figure prominently is likely to remain vacuous and incomplete. But it does not follow from this that interests are the ultimate determinant of political outcomes. Here I will challenge the notion that there is a well-defined mapping from "interests" to outcomes. This mapping depends on many unstated assumptions about the ideas that political agents have about: 1) what they are maximizing, 2) how the world works, and 3) the set of tools they have at their disposal to further their interests. Importantly, these ideas are subject to both manipulation and innovation, making them part of the political game. There is, in fact, a direct parallel, as I will show, between inventive activity in technology, which economists now routinely make endogenous in their models, and investment in persuasion and policy innovation in the political arena. I focus specifically on models professing to explain economic inefficiency and argue that outcomes in such models are determined as much by the ideas that elites are presumed to have on feasible strategies as by vested interests themselves. A corollary is that new ideas about policy—or policy entrepreneurship—can exert an independent effect on equilibrium outcomes even in the absence of changes in the configuration of political power. I conclude by discussing the sources of new ideas.

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Winter 2014. An earlier draft was titled “Ideas and Interests in Political Economy.”

Yargı, Cemaat ve Bir Darbe Kurgusunun İç Yüzü
Doğan P, Rodrik D. Yargı, Cemaat ve Bir Darbe Kurgusunun İç Yüzü. Istanbul: Destek Yayinevi; 2014. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Written jointly with Pinar Dogan, this is an update of our 2010 book (see below) on the infamous Sledgehammer case in Turkey. In addition to the Sledgehammer trial, the book covers the Ergenekon and other court cases that were stage managed by the Gulen network, in cooperation with the Erdogan government. It provides detailed evidence on the framing of innocent victims by police and prosecutors in an evident attempt to politically redesign the country. It also examines the role of the media and intelligentsia in shaping public opinion over the trials.

2013
Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: An Overview. 2013.Abstract

 

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A paper that introduces a series of World Bank country studies on structural change.

The Globalization Paradox: A response to Rosa Lastra and Robert Howse. International Journal of Constitutional Law. 2013;11 (3) :816-817. PDF
The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth. 2013.Abstract

 

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Global Citizen Foundation Working Paper.

Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing. Quarterly Journal of Economics. 2013;128 (1) :165-204.Abstract

Unlike economies as a whole, manufacturing industries exhibit strong unconditional convergence in labor productivity. The article documents this at various levels of disaggregation for a large sample covering more than 100 countries over recent decades. The result is highly robust to changes in the sample and specification. The coefficient of unconditional convergence is estimated quite precisely and is large, at between 2–3% in most specifications and 2.9% a year in the baseline specification covering 118 countries. The article also finds substantial sigma convergence at the two-digit level for a smaller sample of countries. Despite strong convergence within manufacturing, aggregate convergence fails due to the small share of manufacturing employment in low-income countries and the slow pace of industrialization. Because of data coverage, these findings should be as viewed as applying to the organized, formal parts of manufacturing.

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This is a substantially revised version of “Unconditional Convergence” below.

Who Needs the Nation State?. Economic Geography. 2013;89 (1) :1-19.Abstract

The nation-state has long been under attack from liberal economists and cosmopolitan ethicists alike. But it has proved remarkably resilient and remains the principal locus of governance as well as the primary determinant of personal attachments and identity. The global financial crisis has further under- scored its centrality. Against the background of the globalization revolution, the tendency is to view the nation-state as a hindrance to the achievement of desirable economic and social outcomes. Yet it remains indispensable to the achievement of those goals.

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Actually, we all do.
(Roepke Lecture), May 2012.

2012
Frieden J, Pettis M, Rodrik D, Zedillo E. After the Fall: The Future of Global Cooperation. Geneva Reports on the World Economy. 2012;14.Abstract

 

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Don't count on global governance.

Why We Learn Nothing from Regressing Economic Growth on Policies. Seoul Journal of Economics. 2012.Abstract

Government use policy to achieve certain outcomes. Sometimes the desired ends are worthwhile, and sometimes they are pernicious. Cross-country regressions have been the tool of choice in assessing the effectiveness of policies and the empirical relevance of these two diametrically opposite views of government behavior. When government policy responds systematically to economic or political objectives, the standard growth regression in which economic growth (or any other performance indicator) is regressed on policy tells us nothing about the effectiveness of policy and whether government motives are good or bad.

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A short paper on the (mis)use of growth regressions.

Rodrik D. Do We Need to Rethink Growth Policies?. In: Blanchard O, Romer D, Spence M, Stiglitz J In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy. Cambridge: The MIT Press ; 2012. pp. 157-167. PDF
The Turkish Economy After the Crisis. Ekonomi-tek. 2012;1 (1) :41-61.Abstract

 The global financial crisis has demonstrated that a financially open economy has many areas of vulnerability. Even when a country keeps its own house in order, it remains at the mercy of developments in external financial markets. So, one lesson to bear in mind is that policymakers need to guard against not just domestic shocks, but also shocks that emanate outward from financial instability elsewhere. To accomplish this, complete financial openness is not the best policy. A second lesson is that Turkey's prevailing growth strategy can neither be sustained nor generate enough employment. Therefore, it would be a mistake for the country to return to the status quo ante and resuscitate a model that fails to make adequate use of domestic resources. Most importantly, Turkey has to learn to live with a reduced reliance on external borrowing. The paper discusses the needed realignments in fiscal and exchange-rate policies.

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Some changes in fiscal and exchange-rate policies are called for.

Globalization Dilemmas and the Way Out. The Indian Journal of Industrial Relations. 2012;47 (3) :393-404.Abstract

The objective of international economic arrangements must be to attain the maximum amount of integration or the maximum thickness in economic transactions that are consistent with maintaining space for diversity in national institutions and the arrangements. The objective would be to create enough policy space to allow rich countries to rework their social compacts at home, poor countries to restructure and diversify their economies so that they can position themselves better to benefit from globalisation, and all nations, rich and poor alike, to establish financial systems and regulatory structures that are more attuned to their own needs. A better managed globalisation will be a better globalisation, argues the paper.

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2011
Unconditional Convergence. NBER Working Paper Series. 2011.Abstract

Unlike economies as a whole, manufacturing industries exhibit unconditional convergence in labor productivity.  The paper documents this finding for 4-digit manufacturing sectors for a large group of developed and developing countries over the period since 1990.  The coefficient of unconditional convergence is estimated quite precisely and is large, at 3.0-5.6 percent per year depending on the estimation horizon.  The result is robust to a large number of specification tests, and statistically highly significant. Because of data coverage, these findings should be as viewed as applying to the organized, formal parts of manufacturing.

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Revised October 2011. Yes, it does exist, but you have to look for it in manufacturing industries.

Comments on "New Structural Economics" by Justin Yifu Lin, in World Bank Research Observer. ; 2011.Abstract

 

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The Future of Economic Convergence. 2011.Abstract

 

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Do not expect miracles.

Rodrik D, McMillan M. Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth. 2011. PDF Data

In some countries structural change enhances economy-wide productivity, in others it reduces it.  Why? Dataset and Employment VA data.  Published as Chapter 2 of "Making Globalization Socially Sustainable."

The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy
The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy. New York and London: W.W. Norton; 2011 pp. 368. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Surveying three centuries of economic history, a Harvard professor argues for a leaner global system that puts national democracies front and center.  From the mercantile monopolies of seventeenth-century empires to the modern-day authority of the WTO, IMF, and World Bank, the nations of the world have struggled to effectively harness globalization's promise. The economic narratives that underpinned these eras—the gold standard, the Bretton Woods regime, the "Washington Consensus"—brought great success and great failure. In this eloquent challenge to the reigning wisdom on globalization, Dani Rodrik offers a new narrative, one that embraces an ineluctable tension: we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. When the social arrangements of democracies inevitably clash with the international demands of globalization, national priorities should take precedence. Combining history with insight, humor with good-natured critique, Rodrik's case for a customizable globalization supported by a light frame of international rules shows the way to a balanced prosperity as we confront today's global challenges in trade, finance, and labor markets.

2010
Balyoz : Bir Darbe Kurgusunun Belgeleri ve Gerçekler
Balyoz : Bir Darbe Kurgusunun Belgeleri ve Gerçekler. Istanbul: Destek Yayinevi; 2010. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Written in Turkish with my wife Pinar Dogan, this book covers the most important political trial in Turkey in at least five decades, which opened in December 2010. It is based on our blog on the topic. Balyoz is a legal and political exposé. It details a brazen effort to frame more than 300 officers for crimes they have not committed. It documents the roles that groups within the judiciary, police, media, intelligentsia, the national science and technological institute, and (last but not least), the AKP government have played in creating what can best be called an “alternative reality.” (Balyoz means “sledgehammer” in Turkish; it refers to the code name of the fictional coup plot on which the book is based.) This is a book I never thought I would (have to) write.

Handbook of Development Economics
Rodrik D, Rosenzweig MR ed. Handbook of Development Economics. 5th ed. Amsterdam: North-Holland; 2010. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This is the new edition of the Handbook of Development Economics. Compared to previous versions, it focuses more on policy questions. The Handbooks in Economics series continues to provide the various branches of economics with handbooks which are definitive reference sources, suitable for use by professional researchers, advanced graduate students, or by those seeking a teaching supplement.With contributions from leading researchers, each Handbook presents an accurate, self-contained survey of the current state of the topic under examination. These surveys summarize the most recent discussions in journals, and elucidate new developments.Although original material is also included, the main aim of this series is the provision of comprehensive and accessible surveys.The Handbooks are indispensable reference works which belong in every professional collection, and form ideal supplementary reading for graduate economics students on advanced courses.

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