Why We Learn Nothing from Regressing Economic Growth on Policies. Seoul Journal of Economics. 2012.Abstract

Government use policy to achieve certain outcomes. Sometimes the desired ends are worthwhile, and sometimes they are pernicious. Cross-country regressions have been the tool of choice in assessing the effectiveness of policies and the empirical relevance of these two diametrically opposite views of government behavior. When government policy responds systematically to economic or political objectives, the standard growth regression in which economic growth (or any other performance indicator) is regressed on policy tells us nothing about the effectiveness of policy and whether government motives are good or bad.


A short paper on the (mis)use of growth regressions.

Rodrik D. Do We Need to Rethink Growth Policies?. In: Blanchard O, Romer D, Spence M, Stiglitz J In the Wake of the Crisis: Leading Economists Reassess Economic Policy. Cambridge: The MIT Press ; 2012. pp. 157-167. PDF
The Turkish Economy After the Crisis. Ekonomi-tek. 2012;1 (1) :41-61.Abstract

 The global financial crisis has demonstrated that a financially open economy has many areas of vulnerability. Even when a country keeps its own house in order, it remains at the mercy of developments in external financial markets. So, one lesson to bear in mind is that policymakers need to guard against not just domestic shocks, but also shocks that emanate outward from financial instability elsewhere. To accomplish this, complete financial openness is not the best policy. A second lesson is that Turkey's prevailing growth strategy can neither be sustained nor generate enough employment. Therefore, it would be a mistake for the country to return to the status quo ante and resuscitate a model that fails to make adequate use of domestic resources. Most importantly, Turkey has to learn to live with a reduced reliance on external borrowing. The paper discusses the needed realignments in fiscal and exchange-rate policies.


Some changes in fiscal and exchange-rate policies are called for.

Globalization Dilemmas and the Way Out. The Indian Journal of Industrial Relations. 2012;47 (3) :393-404.Abstract

The objective of international economic arrangements must be to attain the maximum amount of integration or the maximum thickness in economic transactions that are consistent with maintaining space for diversity in national institutions and the arrangements. The objective would be to create enough policy space to allow rich countries to rework their social compacts at home, poor countries to restructure and diversify their economies so that they can position themselves better to benefit from globalisation, and all nations, rich and poor alike, to establish financial systems and regulatory structures that are more attuned to their own needs. A better managed globalisation will be a better globalisation, argues the paper.

Unconditional Convergence. NBER Working Paper Series. 2011.Abstract

Unlike economies as a whole, manufacturing industries exhibit unconditional convergence in labor productivity.  The paper documents this finding for 4-digit manufacturing sectors for a large group of developed and developing countries over the period since 1990.  The coefficient of unconditional convergence is estimated quite precisely and is large, at 3.0-5.6 percent per year depending on the estimation horizon.  The result is robust to a large number of specification tests, and statistically highly significant. Because of data coverage, these findings should be as viewed as applying to the organized, formal parts of manufacturing.


Revised October 2011. Yes, it does exist, but you have to look for it in manufacturing industries.

Comments on "New Structural Economics" by Justin Yifu Lin, in World Bank Research Observer. ; 2011.Abstract


The Future of Economic Convergence. 2011.Abstract



Do not expect miracles.

Rodrik D, McMillan M. Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth. 2011. PDF Data

In some countries structural change enhances economy-wide productivity, in others it reduces it.  Why? Dataset and Employment VA data.  Published as Chapter 2 of "Making Globalization Socially Sustainable."

The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy
The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy. New York and London: W.W. Norton; 2011 pp. 368. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Surveying three centuries of economic history, a Harvard professor argues for a leaner global system that puts national democracies front and center.  From the mercantile monopolies of seventeenth-century empires to the modern-day authority of the WTO, IMF, and World Bank, the nations of the world have struggled to effectively harness globalization's promise. The economic narratives that underpinned these eras—the gold standard, the Bretton Woods regime, the "Washington Consensus"—brought great success and great failure. In this eloquent challenge to the reigning wisdom on globalization, Dani Rodrik offers a new narrative, one that embraces an ineluctable tension: we cannot simultaneously pursue democracy, national self-determination, and economic globalization. When the social arrangements of democracies inevitably clash with the international demands of globalization, national priorities should take precedence. Combining history with insight, humor with good-natured critique, Rodrik's case for a customizable globalization supported by a light frame of international rules shows the way to a balanced prosperity as we confront today's global challenges in trade, finance, and labor markets.

Balyoz : Bir Darbe Kurgusunun Belgeleri ve Gerçekler
Balyoz : Bir Darbe Kurgusunun Belgeleri ve Gerçekler. Istanbul: Destek Yayinevi; 2010. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Written in Turkish with my wife Pinar Dogan, this book covers the most important political trial in Turkey in at least five decades, which opened in December 2010. It is based on our blog on the topic. Balyoz is a legal and political exposé. It details a brazen effort to frame more than 300 officers for crimes they have not committed. It documents the roles that groups within the judiciary, police, media, intelligentsia, the national science and technological institute, and (last but not least), the AKP government have played in creating what can best be called an “alternative reality.” (Balyoz means “sledgehammer” in Turkish; it refers to the code name of the fictional coup plot on which the book is based.) This is a book I never thought I would (have to) write.

Handbook of Development Economics
Rodrik D, Rosenzweig MR ed. Handbook of Development Economics. 5th ed. Amsterdam: North-Holland; 2010. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This is the new edition of the Handbook of Development Economics. Compared to previous versions, it focuses more on policy questions. The Handbooks in Economics series continues to provide the various branches of economics with handbooks which are definitive reference sources, suitable for use by professional researchers, advanced graduate students, or by those seeking a teaching supplement.With contributions from leading researchers, each Handbook presents an accurate, self-contained survey of the current state of the topic under examination. These surveys summarize the most recent discussions in journals, and elucidate new developments.Although original material is also included, the main aim of this series is the provision of comprehensive and accessible surveys.The Handbooks are indispensable reference works which belong in every professional collection, and form ideal supplementary reading for graduate economics students on advanced courses.

Making Room for China in the World Economy, in American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings. ; 2010. PDF

Revaluation of the Chinese currency is not the simple solution to global macroeconomic imbalances that many think.

Diagnostics before Prescription, in Journal of Economic Perspectives. ; 2009.Abstract

Summer 2010.

Rodrik D, Rosenzweig M. Development Policy and Development Economics: An Introduction. 2009.Abstract



The introduction to the next volume of the Handbook of Development Economics.

Growth after the Crisis. 2009. PDF

Yes, there will be some.

Rodrik D, Subramanian A. Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?. 2009. PDF

It has a lot to do with the exchange-rate consequences of capital inflows. Published as an IMF Staff Paper.

The Disappointments of Financial Globalization, in Bank of Thailand International Symposium. ; 2008. PDF
The New Development Economics: We Shall Experiment, But How Shall We Learn?. 2008.Abstract



Revised, October 2008.
There is a lot more convergence between macro- and micro-development economists than meets the eye.

The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. 2008.Abstract



Undervaluation is good for growth, but why?  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2008.

Understanding South Africa's Economic Puzzles, in Economics of Transition. ; 2008.Abstract



Why is unemployment so high and growth so low in South Africa? Because of neglect of non-resource tradables.